Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1847 UTC sun Aug 19 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...Tropical waves...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86w N of 05n, moving W 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted from 05n to 10n between 83w and 90w.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109w from 05n to 17n, moving
W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 07n to 09n between 102w and 113w and from 12n to 
16n between 101w and 108w.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126w from 05n to 18n, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 13n to 17n between 119w and 127w.

   
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08n78w to 07n100w to 10n120w to 
10n124w. The ITCZ resumes from 09n127w to 10n140w. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04n 
east of 83w. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05n to 
08n between 92w and 101w. Scattered moderate convection was 
noted from 07n to 11n between 135w and 140w. 

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Surface ridging enters the forecast waters near 30n125w and 
extends se to near the revillagigedo islands. This feature will 
support gentle to moderate NW winds through Tue. The ridge will
weaken slightly the middle of next week, which will help to 
decrease winds to light to gentle late Tue into Wed. The ridge 
will then strengthen Thu, bringing a slight increase to the 
winds Thu and Fri.

Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain a light
wind regime over the Gulf of California through the middle of 
this week.

Strong N to NE gap winds will start over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Tue night before diminishing Thu night.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

The monsoon trough will linger near 09n during the next few 
days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be 
light to moderate. The only exception is over the Gulf of 
papagayo, where winds will pulse to between moderate and fresh 
each night.

Remainder of the area...   

Hurricane Lane continues to moved further from the area. The only
lingering affects of Lane on the forecast area is swell to 10 ft
over the waters from 13n to 22n west of 135w. This swell will
subside below 8 ft Monday.

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the 
northern waters and the ITCZ will support gentle to moderate 
trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell N of the ITCZ and W of 120w
through the middle of this week.

  
$$
Al


		
		

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