Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 230901
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 23 2018  

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.      

...Special features... 

Hurricane Willa is centered near 20.8n 107.3w at 23/0900 UTC 
moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. 
Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 90 nm of 
the center, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong 
convection in bands within 210 nm of the center. Heavy rainfall 
is expected along the Pacific coast of Mainland Mexico from 104w 
to 107w through this evening as Willa tracks NE and inland 
Mexico. Large swells generated by Willa will continue to reach 
the Mainland Mexican coast and the southern Gulf of California 
between 102w and 108w through tonight, and are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please refer 
to local forecasts from the meteorological service of Mexico for 
specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential 
from Willa. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmep4/wtpz24 knhc for additional details. 

Tropical Depression Vicente is centered near 17.2n 102.0w at 
23/0900 UTC moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands 
within 120 nm of the center and are likely causing localized 
flooding along the Mexican coast. Vicente will continue on a 
general west-northwestward track and weaken to remnant today and 
dissipate tonight. Please refer to local forecasts from the 
meteorological service of Mexico for specific information on 
heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Vicente. Refer to 
the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
miatcmep3/wtpz23 knhc for additional details.  

...Tropical wave...

A tropical wave is analyzed N of 06n along 93w with scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection flaring S of 08n within 60 
nm of the wave axis.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends W-SW off the Caribbean coast of 
Colombia at 09n76w across the northern Gulf of Panama and 
northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09n83w, 
and continues SW through a tropical wave at 07n93w then turns NW 
to 13n110w, then turns SW through an embedded 1008 mb surface 
low at 11.5n116w to 09n124w where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ which then continues W-NW to beyond 
11n140w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed within 120 nm either side of lines from 08n81w to 
08n91w, and from 11n99w to 13n100w. Isolated moderate to strong 
convection is observed along the ITCZ within 150 nm either side 
of a line from 08n135w to 11n140w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

See the special features paragraph for details on tropical 
cyclones Vicente and Willa.  

W of the Baja California peninsula...moderate to locally fresh 
NW flow expected through early Wed when the pressure gradient 
will begin to relax. Large southerly swell from tropical cyclone 
Willa will continue to propagate N through the waters W of baja 
reaching as far N as 26n late tonight while NW swell in the form 
of 7 to 8 ft seas, propagates S across the waters N of 27n. Seas 
should subside to less than 8 ft by Wed afternoon.

Gulf of california: light, fresh to locally strong NW winds, and 
seas to 12 ft, are expected S of 25.5n through late tonight as 
Willa passes S of the Gulf entrance.  Seas of 3 to 5 ft are 
possible across the Gulf waters S of 25n through the rest of the 
week.   

Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh to locally strong northerly flow is 
expected through this morning.  

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo...pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through 
Wed morning.  

Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere 
N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh 
southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast 
S of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week.

   
Remainder of the area...   

Refer to the special features paragraph above for details on 
tropical cyclone Willa.

A 1008 mb low near 11.5n116w will drift NW for the next several 
days with fresh southerly flow, and 6 to 8 ft seas forecast 
within 210 nm se of the low. This low has a low chance of 
becoming a tropical cyclone during the 5 days. 

A surface high will meander near 28n138w. An area of locally 
strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the 
tropical waters from 10n to 17n W of 135w for the next several 
days. Large NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 
30n140w tonight and reach from 32n130w to 20n140w on Wed night 
and from 32n120w to 10n135w on Thu night. 

$$
Nelson


		
		

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