Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 240944
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...Special feature...the Fuego Volcano inland over southern 
Guatemala near at 14.5n 90.9w is erupting. A plume of volcanic 
ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14n 
and E of 93w. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or 
less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter 
volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to 
the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please 
refer to the east Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers hsfep2/fzpn03 knhc for more details on the ashfall 
advisory.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 03n90w to 03n112w where 
scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which 
continues W to 02n123w to 05n130w to beyond 07n140w. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is observed within area 
bounded by a line from 17n122w to 13n105w to 03n135w to 
17n122w. 

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Pacific waters W of the baja peninsula: a W to E ridge extends 
across the offshore waters from 22n116w to 14n100w. Fresh to 
strong NW winds, with 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of 25n 
within 75 nm W of Baja California peninsula. These conditions 
will spread southward to along 24n and also expand seaward to 
180 nm this morning before beginning to diminish. Associated 
seas should subside to less than 8 ft by late Sun night, with 
another batch of strong NW winds, accompanied by large NW swell, 
arriving at 30n120w late Mon night. Expect fresh NW winds and 8 
to 15 ft seas N of 24n on Tue evening, and moderate N winds and 
7 to 10 ft seas W of the entire Baja Peninsula late Wed.   

Gulf of tehuantepec: gentle onshore flow expected during the 
daylight hours with gentle offshore during the overnight hours 
for the next several days. 

  
Gulf of california: fresh to strong NW winds currently across 
the far northern waters will spread southward across the waters 
N of 26n today. Strong NW winds are forecast across the waters S 
of 28.5n this evening, with seas building to 8 ft across the 
longest fetch waters. Except fresh NW flow across the entire 
Gulf waters on sun. The pressure gradient will quickly relax on 
sun Mon, with gentle winds gradually clocking to S, except 
increasing to strong along 30n on Mon night ahead of the next 
cold front sweeping across the northern Gulf waters on Tue with 
brief strong NW winds behind the front on Tue night.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of papagayo through 
Thu, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of panama: mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then 
forecast tonight and on Sun night with fresh winds expected to 
resume on Mon and Tue nights.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08n while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08n. 

Remainder of the area... 

Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to 
support fresh to locally strong NE trades, and 7 to 11 ft seas, 
across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 
115w through sun when the pressure gradient is forecast to 
further tighten. Expect a strong NE breeze, with 8 to 12 ft 
seas, across the Pacific waters from 08n to 24n W of 129w by 
early Tue. 

Northerly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will continue 
to propagate S across the waters from 25n to 32n between 117w 
and 130w through tonight before beginning to subside. 

Around round of strong northerly winds will reach along 32n 
between 120w and 130w on Mon night.  Although the winds will 
diminish to a fresh N breeze on Tue, expect 8 to 16 ft seas 
across the Pacific waters from 22n to 32n between 117w and 132w 
on Tue night.

 
$$
Nelson


		
		

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