Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 221620 cca

Tropical weather discussion...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 22 2019

Corrected Gulf of Tehuantepec section in discussion

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1400 UTC.

...Special features...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec...

Gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec on 
Wednesday night: N to NE winds 30 to 35 knots, and seas building 
to 8 feet. The wind speeds will increase to N to NE 35 to 40 
knots, and sea heights increasing to 12 to 15 feet, on Thursday 
morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03 
knhc/hsfep2 for further details. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The equatorial surface trough passes through the coast of 
Colombia near 07n77w to 06n82w to 06n86w to 05n92w. The ITCZ 
continues from 05n92w to 03n104w to 05n126w. A surface trough is 
along 132w/133w from 03n to 09n. The ITCZ continues again from 
04n134w to 04n140w.  Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 112w and


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

The surface pressure gradient, between a broad ridge anchored NW 
of the area and a low pressure system in Colorado, is supporting 
fresh to strong NW winds along northern Baja California and the 
Gulf of California.

Gulf of california: strong NW winds in the Gulf of California 
will continue through Thursday. The strength, fetch and duration 
of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 
feet in parts of the Gulf by this evening.

Gulf of tehuantepec: the current gap wind event is winding down. 
The N to NE 20 to 25 gap wind event is winding down, with wind 
speeds less than 20 knots later this afternoon. Gale-force N to 
NE winds will start again on Wednesday night, and increase to N 
to NE 35 to 40 knots by Thursday morning. Gale-force winds are 
forecast to continue in some form until at least Saturday 
morning. Please read the special features section for more 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

High pressure NE of the area will support strong gap winds 
through the Gulf of papagayo, and to a lesser extent, the Gulf 
of Panama into the weekend.

Remainder of the area...  

A broad surface ridge dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean north 
of 15n and west of 110w. The surface pressure gradient, between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, will 
support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and 
mainly west of 125w. A surface trough may develop and deepen 
along 130w by mid-week. The GFS global model is most aggressive 
for a deeper trough and higher winds. Other models show trough 
development, but lighter winds associated with the trough.



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