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000 
FXUS62 KRAH 270556
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross the area today, followed by high 
pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the 
week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
As of 940 PM EDT Monday... 

Very pleasant night over central NC as temperatures begin to sink 
into the 60s in some northern locations at this time with low 70s 
across the rest of the area. Some cloud cover across the central 
portion of the area will keep temperatures from bottoming out for a 
while but should still see some upper 50s in some locations across 
the nw Piedmont which has a better chance of seeing some clear skies 
for a while. Conditions should remain VFR through the overnight 
hours and winds are expected to be calm to light and variable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

The s/w cross central NC late Tuesday/early Tuesday evening. Lift 
associated with the system, coupled with afternoon heating and 
available moisture should spark the development of a few showers by 
mid day across the Piedmont. This convective threat will spread into 
the Sandhills and coastal plain where coverage may be enhanced due 
to timing and slightly better low level moisture. Current CAM 
solutions are a little too robust considering current coverage 
across the lower Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley. Capped PoP at 30 percent 
east of highway 1 Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday evening. 

Variably cloudy skies and patchy showers will yield temperatures 
several degrees below normal for late June. High temps Tuesday upper 
70s NW to the low-mid 80s southeast. 

The system will exit our eastern periphery early Tuesday evening 
with rain chances decreasing shortly after sunset. Subsidence in the 
wake of the system will lead to decreasing cloudiness with mostly 
clear skies anticipated after midnight. Where showers do occur 
Tuesday, residual moisture left in their wake under clearing skies 
may lead to the formation of patchy fog. Min temps generally 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday... 

A mid level trough will continue moving east on Wednesday with a 
general west-to-east flow Thursday into early next week.  At the 
surface, high pressure will crest over the region Wednesday, then 
settle offshore into early next week. Return flow around the high 
will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels. 
Scattered afternoon and evening convection will develop Saturday 
through Monday as instability and low level moisture reach 
sufficient levels. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

The approach of a mid-upper level disturbance and associated surface 
cold front will result in patchy mid-high level cloudiness today. 
Moisture will be in short supply, and while we may see a few 
showers, coverage is expected to be too low to include in the TAFS. 
Winds will shift to northerly at 6-8 knots this morning as the 
surface front moves southeast across central NC, reaching the 
coastal plain around mid day.

High pressure will settle in behind the exiting disturbance tonight 
and linger through Thursday. As this high exits offshore Friday, the 
return southerly flow will advect a moist unstable air mass into our 
region, setting the stage for scattered afternoon-evening 
convection, and early morning low clouds and fog. Thus, the 
potential for periods of MVFR/IFR parameters will increase, 
beginning Friday morning and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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