Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will extend across the region through the
rest of the week, with slowly rising temperatures and humidity. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

A strong area of high pressure centered over the Deep South
will extended into central NC tonight. A layer of moisture trapped
below the subsidence inversion will result in patches of
stratocumulus while a veil of cirrus will overspread aloft. The
sinking air associated with the high pressure system will continue
to inhibit convective development.

The modification of the air mass over central NC will result in
overnight temps a couple of degrees warmer compared to last night.
Min temps will generally be in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

The high pressure system will
gradually strengthen with the core eventually settling over our area
by early Friday. Continued warming/modification of the air mass will
translate to warmer temps, both afternoon and overnight. Low level
thicknesses Thursday afternoon projected to be a solid 15m warmer
than this afternoon. Based on past afternoons, this warming suggest
max temps Thu near 90 nw Piedmont to the lower 90s elsewhere.
Overnight temps Thu night should be a degree or two within 70. 

While patchy cloudiness still expected Thursday and Thursday night,
lack of sufficient moisture through the column and overall sinking
motion will deter convective development across most of central NC
through Thursday night. A caveat to this is the tail end of minor
s/w crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic late Thu/Thu night will clip
the far northern sections of central NC. Available instability
suggest isolated convection possible though whether enough lift and
moisture aloft will be present is questionable. For now will paint a
10-14 PoP across sections of the northern Piedmont late Thu-Thu
evening and see how subsequent model runs evolve this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

Fri-Sun: Quite warm to start this period, followed by moderating
temps, and very low precip chances throughout. Strong mid level
ridging will remain the dominant weather feature heading into the
weekend, with its center drifting slowly from the western Carolinas
early Fri ENE to over eastern VA/NE NC by Sun, all the while
maintaining dry and stable mid-upper levels over our area. A surface
cold front approaching from the NW Fri will drop into and through NC
over the weekend, causing a dip in thicknesses from much above
normal Fri/Sat to near or just slightly above normal starting Sun.
With a weakening low level wind field and no opportunity for
moisture influx at any level, any convection ahead of or with the
front will be feeble and very isolated, likely limited to a few
cells drifting slowly off the higher terrain (extreme NW CWA) and
along an inland-drifting sea breeze (far SE CWA) late in the day
Fri, with perhaps a bit better (but still low) coverage Sat
afternoon over the southwest CWA near weak upglide and low level
mass convergence near the Piedmont trough. The front settles to our
south Sun with a high pressure ridge centered off New England nosing
narrowly to the SW through central NC, supporting a drop in max
temps from the mid 90s Fri/Sat to around 90 or the lower 90s
beginning Sun. 

Mon-Wed: Starting Mon, the mid level ridge weakens and flattens yet
continues to extend W-E across the region. Low level flow from the
east or ENE may be sufficiently strong and onshore-directed to boost
low level moisture profiles and increase diurnal sea-breeze
convection chances in the SE CWA on Mon, although the limited deep
moisture should keep coverage low. Models still vary quite a bit
with the tropical wave now over the northern Leeward Islands which
may be driven toward the WNW by the mid level ridge and may affect a
portion of FL and/or the Gulf Coast by early to mid week. Model
solutions continue to range widely, with the GFS remaining weak with
an erratic motion and the so-far-strongest ECMWF solution showing a
slowing trend with the 12z/24 run, which all results in reduced
confidence in any details this far out. At the very least, the
increasing easterly low-mid level component should draw increasing
amounts of Atlantic moisture into the eastern Carolinas, and we
should see an increase in daily showers and a few storms mainly east
as we head into midweek. We will, of course, continue to monitor the
tropical wave, although by all accounts it will not be a direct
factor in our weather through at least Wed. With thicknesses holding
a bit above normal, temps are expected to peak around 90 to the
lower 90s Mon-Wed, with lows mostly in the lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday...

There is a high probability that VFR conditions will persist across
central NC through Thursday night. The exception will be pockets 
of MVFR/IFR visibility between 09Z-12Z, mainly in the sandhills and
coastal plain. This possibility appears highest in vicinity of KRWI.
Otherwise, an area of high pressure will maintain dry weather with
light wind conditions.

This area of high pressure is expected to maintain its influence over 
our region through early next week. This suggest an extended period 
of VFR conditions, aside from patchy early morning MVFR/IFR fog or
low clouds.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...WSS 
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...WSS



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