000 
FXUS62 KRAH 090718
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
218 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and cold high pressure centered from Alberta Canada into
the northern Plains will continue building SE toward NC through
Saturday.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

The expansive arctic high pressure currently centered over nation's
mid-section will build slowly eastward into the area through the
weekend. Aloft, trailing channeled shortwave energy, associated with
the closed low moving out over the Canadian Maritimes will traverse
the Mid-Atlantic region today. However, it will prove of little
consequence as the cP airmass in place(PWATS ~ 0.10") is just too
dry to support any clouds. 

With H8 temps -10 Celsius(2 to 3 standard deviations below normal)
and low-level thicknesses bottoming around 1275 meters(45 meters
below normal), temperatures will will run a good 10 to 15 degrees
below normal. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in upper
teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Flow aloft transitions to zonal on Saturday. Otherwise, very little
little change as the modified arctic high pressure migrates east
atop the region. Temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be
very similar to today and tonight. Highs 40 to 45.
Lows 20 to 25. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
As of 310 PM Thursday...

A Pacific shortwave trough, embedded within fast and broadly
cyclonic flow across much of the Lower 48, will support a migratory
wave of low pressure from the TX panhandle Sun to the Nrn
Appalachians Mon. A preceding warm/coastal front will retreat Nwwd
across central NC with an associated chance of showers during that
time (Sun-Mon). Temperatures will moderate with the retreat of the
warm front, and clouds. The trailing cold front, and continued
chance of showers, will follow and cross NC late Mon-early Tue.

Uncertainty in the mid to late week forecast remains above average.
There are indications that a flat frontal wave will zip off the SE
U.S. during the middle of the week; and this feature may spread a
shield of light rain across NC late Tue-Wed.
Thereafter, the models continue to indicate another cold frontal
passage and associated arrival of colder temperatures will occur by
Wed night-Thu, but recent model runs have backed off somewhat on how
far S the next dome of arctic air will plunge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
As of 1245 AM FRIDAY...

24-Hour TAF period: Very Dry air associated with the cP airmass
building into the area will support VFR conditions through the TAF
period. Winds will be northwesterly, generally 5-10 mph overnight,
increasing to around 10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph in the
afternoon. 

Looking ahead: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend.
There is a small chance of sub-VFR ceilings on Sunday, with better
chances Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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