Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
958 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

A surface trough and associated weak areas of low pressure will
affect central NC through early next week. 


As of 958 AM Saturday...

A few light showers have developed across the northern coastal
plain, and this activity is expected to move off the ene over the
next few hours.  Current near-term guidance is in good agreement
with our current forecast, which shows additional scattered showers
and tstms developing over the foothills and western piedmont around
mid-day or early afternoon, then moving ene across central NC during
the mid-late afternoon, with the best coverage expected across our
northern/northeast zones.  Our current temp forecast is on-track,
featuring highs in the low-mid 90s and h.i. values between 95-103
(highest southeast)...just below advisory criteria.  No major
changes expected with the morning update. 

Prev near-term disc as of 250 AM...The dew points quickly returned
to the 70s overnight as the low level flow became more southerly.
There have been a few showers and even isolated thunderstorms to our
west and along the coast early today. NC continues to be on the very
southern edge of a stronger belt of WSW mid level flow extending
from KY eastward across VA. Another mid/upper level vort max is
forecast to track in the stronger flow to our north this afternoon
and evening. With a surface trough in place through the Piedmont of
VA and NC, scattered convection is expected to develop this
afternoon as strong heating occurs in the very moist air mass in
place over our region. 

The convection should fire in the mountains and move
eastward, with the highest POP across the northern sections closer
to the stronger flow aloft. Convection should also favor areas along
and east of the surface trough later this afternoon into the early
evening. Therefore, the highest POP (50) will be across the northern
and eastern zones with lowest POP in the southwest and far southern
Piedmont (20). Locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind
gusts to 40-50 mph should be common with the stronger storms. An
isolated storm may become severe, with localized damaging wind the
main threat (mainly from the Triad to the Triangle and areas
northward). Highs today 88-96 N to S, held down by the increased
clouds and convection north today. Dew points will be in the lower
to mid 70s, and heat indices 95-100. Fayetteville to Goldsboro
should see 100-103 heat indices, a bit below advisory criteria. QPF
should range upward of 0.50 in the northeast with locally 1 inch

After the thunderstorms weaken with loss of heating this evening, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible (20 percent or less
for any one spot). Warm and humid conditions with partly cloudy
skies expected. Lows tonight in the 70s. 


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Sunday night/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

Most areas will have a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening again Sunday. POP should be 50+
percent, especially aided by the surface trough, an approaching
mid/upper level disturbance rounding the base of the upper trough,
and strong heating in the very moist boundary layer. Highs should
reach the upper 80s to mid 90s before convection overturns the
boundary layer and cools the surface late. A few of the storms
should again be strong and an isolated damaging wind gust or two
can be expected during or just after peak heating. 

QFP should average 0.25 to 0.50 with local 1 inch totals expected.  


.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
As of 1200 AM Saturday...

Broad troughing aloft will prevail over the Carolinas and Mid-
Atlantic early next week, transitioning to NW flow aloft mid-week as
an upper level ridge re-strengthens over the lower MS river valley
and Deep South, followed by ridging aloft mid/late next week as the
aforementioned ridge builds E/NE over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
With the above in mind, expect near normal temperatures early next
week with temperatures rising above normal by mid/late week as the
aforementioned ridge builds over the region. With broad troughing
aloft, expect near or above-normal chances for convection early next
week, with chances somewhat more ambiguous in NW flow aloft by mid-
week, falling below normal (dry perhaps) late-week as the ridge
builds over the region. With central NC situated on the southern
periphery of the westerlies and eventually a period of NW flow
aloft, a potential for organized severe weather may exist early to
mid-week if small amplitude waves and/or upstream convection /MCVs/
progress into/across the region, particularly in vicinity of peak
heating. -Vincent


.AVIATION /12Z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
As of 650 AM Saturday...

24-Hour TAF period: Generally VFR conditions through noon, then
there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening. Best chance will be from KGSO to KRDU to KRWI. 
A return to VFR conditions tonight and Sunday morning, except for
some early morning LIFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS between 09Z and 12Z

Looking ahead: There will be a chance for sub-VFR conditions in
showers/storms Sunday afternoon into Monday as the upper trough
settles overhead and a front stalls over central or eastern NC. 
MVFR or IFR fog is possible each morning as well. 





SHORT TERM...Badgett 
LONG TERM...Vincent 

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